Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Heading into fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for Canadian diversified financial companies, National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn continues to “expect an uneven and uncertain macroeconomic backdrop,” but he continues to put “a low probability on recession risks.
” “With neither tailwinds nor headwinds from a macro picture, companies delivering strong strategic execution with value upside will see the most upside in 2026,” he said. In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Gloyn revised his estimates and target prices for several companies in his coverage universe, reiterating his positive view on the property and casualty insurance sector.) with an “outperform” rating and $82 target, up from $68 previously. The average target on the Street is $67.50, according to LSEG data. “We expect growth to outperform consensus as i) core businesses have returned to consistent inflows, ii) Rockefeller is now delivering positive earnings, and iii) ChinaAMC lapping easier comps,” said Mr. Gloyn. “Additionally, IGM has signaled an increase in capital return, recently announcing a 5-per-cent NCIB for 2026 versus 2.5 per cent in 2025, and above consensus forecasts of 1-2 per cent. With $700 mln of unallocated capital, $400-million of FCF above the common dividend, and a payout ratio trending into the low-50s vs. a 60-per-cent target IGM has ample capacity to accelerate repurchases and raise the dividend, which would be the first increase in a decade. Value remains underappreciated, stripping out the value of strategic investments in ChinaAMC, Wealthsimple and Rockefeller implies the core platforms are trading at only approximately 5 times P/E, well below peers at more than 11 times”“We expect TSU will continue to deliver double-digit top-line growth, mid-80-per-cent combined ratio, and mid-to-high teens ROE supported by ongoing strong specialty insurance operations, a scaling U.S. primary insurance platform, higher quality U.S. Programs business, and a rock-solid balance sheet,” he said. “In our view, TSU has delivered solid results and demonstrated value in the U.S. Programs franchise while the market continues to price in an overly pessimistic level of risk around the legacy overhang. A move back toward its historical average P/E implies over 40-per-cent upside before factoring in any earnings growth.” Mr. Gloyn also named a trio of “core holdings” for investors, which he said are “must own if you don’t already.”) with an “outperform” rating and $3,200 target . The average target on the Street is $2,887.54, according to LSEG data."Fairfax: Our top idea in P&C. Least affected by softer insurance cycle, huge excess cash and capital position will allow for buybacks and minority interest purchases that drive ROE higher, value continues to be underappreciated. Element Fleet: Solid strategic execution continues to support double-digit EPS, FCF, dividend growth. Recent tech acquisitions like Autofleet and Car IQ will accelerate the digital transformation leading to revenue upside but more importantly, operating margin upside. Valuation is still extremely cheap at approximately 7-per-cent FCF yields vs. high quality peers trading sub-5 per cent. Brookfield Corp: we prefer the corp over the BAM / BBU plays in our coverage given the opportunity presented in the Insurance Strategy, upside from recovering real estate values, upside from active IPO/capital markets backdrop to generate carried interest, and the benefit of investing at the forefront of the AI infrastructure build out. Valuation at 15 times P/E leaves plenty of upside as peers trade in the high-teens to low-20s,” he explained.) to “tender” from “outperform” with a $3.10 target, down from $5 and matching the average on the Street, on the expectation While TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne warns the short-term environment for Canadian heavy equipment dealers"remains dynamic", leading her to be “somewhat cautious” on the fourth-quarter of 2025, she believes the group’s medium- to long-term earnings prospects are improving, seeing industry bellwether “CAT achieved record Q4/25 and 2025 sales/revenues and has a record backlog of US$51-billion, up 70-per-cent-plus year-over-year, which extends beyond 2026,” she said. “CAT guided to 2026 sales/revenue growth at the high-end of its 5-7-per-cent target CAGR and positive price realization of 200 basis points. The company also noted strong utilization of an aging global mining fleet and highlighted that it provides an invisible layer of the tech stack needed to support AI, i.e., critical minerals, reliable power, and physical infrastructure. We have increased our valuation multiples for all 3 companies and rolled forward our target price horizon by one quarter to be based on 2027.”“1) Strong new equipment sales provide visibility to a future product support; 2) there is a long growth runway in power, related to data centers , dist’d power, and natural gas as a transition fuel; 3) commodity prices are very strong, including copper and gold ; and 4) the Canadian federal government’s impetus to expedite large infrastructure projects is positive.” She also noted valuation multiples are “pushing higher because the Street does not have sufficient clarity on the timing/magnitude of future infrastructure upside to reflect it in estimates.” Analyst: “We have trimmed our Q4/25 EPS estimate for Finning to $1.05 vs. $1.10 previously, to reflect higher stock-based compensation and to better recognize that Q3/25 EBIT in Canada included an unusually high JV earnings contribution of $6-million. We have also increased our valuation multiple to 18.5 times vs. 17.0 times. Our revised estimate is 2 per cent below consensus of $1.07.” Analyst: “Our Q4/25 EPS estimate for Toromont is unchanged at $1.83, which is 4 per cent below consensus of $1.90. Maybe we are too conservative, but consensus could be anchored on an unusually strong Q4/24. We have increased our valuation multiple to 26.5 times vs. 25.0 times.” Analyst: “We have slightly reduced our Q4/25 estimate for Wajax to $0.70, from $0.72, but remain 4 per cent above consensus. Wajax is lapping a particularly weak quarter where efforts to adjust inventory levels resulted in equipment sales at meaningfully lower margins, and more recent margin improvement driven by internal initiatives could result in a possible upside surprise. We have increased our valuation multiple to 8.0 times from 7.5 times.” Precious metals equity analysts at National Bank Financial raised their commodity price deck ahead of fourth-quarter earnings season as they continue to see “a favorable market backdrop for gold and silver through 2026 despite recent volatility, as support from key drivers remains intact including rising levels of sovereign debt, persistent inflation, USD volatility, buoyant long-term yields, continued outlook for rate cuts and strong physical demand from Central Banks/stablecoins.” “Further, we expect recent Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to moderate vs. prior hawkish tendencies,” they added. “Also benefitting silver is the ongoing, multi-year deficit prompting buyers to pay more for available supply, strategic export controls in China, robust demand for solar panels and high-value or niche applications, including AI data centres, defense, medical nanotechnology. Citing their “favourable sentiment and the fluid price environment,” the analysts raised their gold price forecast for 2025 and 2026 to US$5,200 per ounce from US$4,500 with their silver projection moving to US$100 per ounce from US$60. They also increased their long-term prices to US$3,200 and US$42, respectively, from US$3,000 and US$37.50. “We plugged in Q4/25 metal and FX prices, and updated our estimates across our precious metals universe ahead of the Q4/25 reporting period,“ they noted. ”Consensus ranges have largely narrowed for names that have reported Q4/25 ops; while those that have not reported include ABX, AEM, BTO, CG, ELE, FNV, K, MTA, MUX, NEM, OGC, SSRM and WPM. Overall with respect to Q4/25 reporting, based on material differences between our estimates and street consensus, pending catalysts or analyst views, we are: constructive on ARTG and IMG and cautious on FVI and WDO. “2026 guidance remains primary driver of sentiment for select names. For companies that have reported guidance, we see emerging trends of higher costs y/y after baking in inflation, higher profit sharing, and royalty payments, with capex and exploration budgets also higher y/y to take advantage of stronger balance sheets, and elevated ROI on projects and drilling. Companys that have not reported 2026 guidance include AAUC, ABX, AEM, AGI, BTO, CG, DPM, ELE, FNV, GROY, K, MTA, MUX, NEM, OGC, OR, RGLD, SSRM, TFPM and WPM. Overall with respect to 2026 guidance, we are: constructive on ABX with Loulo-Gounkoto ramping up production and possibly being included in guidance; DPM with expectations for Vares Au/Ag production levels above tech report mine plan, offsetting y/y declines at Ada Tepe and Bulgarian levies in Q4/25; GROY post the Pedra Blanca/ Borborema’s addition to cash flowing assets; and cautious on BTO given Fekola regional permitting remains pending, and Goose ramp-up in progress.”) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $28 target, down from $31 and below the $28.40 average, “after adopting 2026 guidance with lower-than-expected production at Kiena.” The analysts also raised their targets for the majority of the stocks in their coverage universe, led by the silver miners, which as a group are revised 40 per cent or more higher, withIn a research report released before the bell titled) should benefit from colder weather in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and so far in 2026,“ however he warns ”recent operational changes may delay this impact." “We await new 2026 guidance and refreshed Superior Delivers and buyback expectations, as well as SPB’s strategy to repay US$260-million in Brookfield prefs by mid-2027, if the share price does not warrant conversion,” he added. Ahead of the Feb. 19 release of the Toronto-based company’s financial report, Mr. Ho is now projecting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of US$163.4-million, up from US$162-million previously, which is narrowly higher than the consensus estimate of US$161.3-million and up from US$159.2-million in the same period in fiscal 2024. “While weather was favourable for both the U.S. and Canada , SPB may not fully capture the benefit of stronger demand in 4Q due to ongoing Superior Delivers–related workforce and fleet rationalization,“ he said. ”That said, unfulfilled orders are likely to shift into 1Q26. We left our 4QE EBITDA largely unchanged at US$163.4-million, which implies US$465-milliom in 2025, matching the guidance mid-point of US$465-million ." “We await new 2026 guidance and refreshed Superior Delivers and buyback expectations, as well as SPB’s strategy to repay US$260-million in Brookfield prefs by mid-2027, if the share price does not warrant conversion.” Citing “increased uncertainty,” Mr. Ho lowered his valuation multiple and target for Superior Plus shares to $8.75 from $9, but, pointing to a 24-per-cent potential return, he reiterated his “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $9.50. “Our investment thesis: SPB is a leading energy distributor with recession-resistant attributes; opportunities to improve the propane business through Superior Delivers, and largely immune from tariffs/geopolitical noise,” he said.in December will have a “minimal impact” on the Montreal-based company’s first-quarter of fiscal 2026, expecting those results to “begin to demonstrate normalized margins based on resilient demand, return of grounded aircraft, ratified pilot contract, and Elevation initiative.” “We forecast Q1/F26 revenue up 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $859-million on 1.4-per-cent yield and 1.7-per-cent traffic,” he said. “We believe resilient demand and return of a portion of grounded aircraft supports traffic and capacity forecast. We forecast adj. EBITDA of $33.6-million on 150 bps of margin expansion. “Conference call focus on booking trends and commentary on path to being free cash flow positive in F2026 . Our target multiple reflects comparable valuations, travel demand outlook, competitive pressure, and increased financial risk for TRZ.” In a note previewing quarterly results for Canadian small-cap passenger air transportation companies, Mr. James said he see Transat possessing more upside than peer) “due to valuation and our forecast for earnings growth based on demand outlook, return of grounded aircraft, recent debt restructuring, and cost-saving and revenue optimization initiatives.” He reduced his Street-high target for Transat shares to $5 from $5.50, remaining above the $3.30 average, with a “buy” rating. Mr. James’s target for Chorus remains $31, exceeding the $29 average, also with a “buy” recommendation. “We believe Chorus provides attractive 12-month upside, but expect the return could require additional patience as the market gradually attributes greater value to Voyageur, and the leveling out of CPA earnings declines comes into view for 2026/2027. We believe its capital returns should award investors in the interim,” he said.“We estimate that the transaction is accretive to our 2026/2027 EPS estimates by 4.5 per cent/6.7 per cent, respectively,” said Mr. Young. “Overall, we like the deal; it brings accretive margins, is synergistic with the EMEA project management platform, and provides immediate scale to complete tuck-in acquisitions . Moreover, we understand that Ayesa has been reporting robust organic growth and has a healthy backlog that could support double-digit revenue growth in 2026/2027 . At 12.5 times LTM EBITDA , the deal is consistent with pricing for scaled engineering assets . Pro-forma leverage does tick-higher to 2.6 times, but we expect that to fall to the low 2.0s by late 2026 and do not anticipate any equity requirements.”“Very strong Jan 5th operations update left little room for material, positive surprises. Q4 CFPS beat smaller than in recent q’s but shouldn’t lose sight of just how strong Q4 was. Outlook commentary likely back-pocketed for Mar. 31 Investor Day. We could see new 3-yr plan/targets, select capacity re-rates, $5.5-6-billion capex over next several yrs, and improved long-term visibility,” he said. * In response to Monday’s announcement of a a further expansion at its AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH facility, National Bank Financial’s Baltej Sidhu raised his“Disciplined, capital-light capacity expansion, backed by a robust backlog—positions VNP for sustained volume growth, rising operating leverage and accelerating free cash flow," he said. Study and track financial data on any traded entity: click to open the full quote page. Data updated as of
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