What's at stake in the four federal byelections on Monday, and what to expect

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What's at stake in the four federal byelections on Monday, and what to expect
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Observers are watching if Maxime Bernier makes some gains in Portage\u002DLisgar or if the Conservatives face an uphill battle to keep Oxford.

Recent polling by Mainstreet Research in the riding shows that the PPC may have gained some ground, with 27 per cent of voters saying they’re leaning to Bernier’s party, but Mainstreet’s data analyst Robert Martin admits that the riding was “extremely hard to poll” and one should proceed with caution with these results.

“If the PPC gets a respectful vote, sure, it’s going to be embarrassing for the party. Will it hugely affect its strategy going forward? I’m not so sure about that… I don’t think we should overstate the significance of these things, to be honest,” he said. It all started when the Christian evangelicals’ candidate of choice, Gerrit Van Dorland, a Conservative staffer who grew up in the riding, wasprocess by the party for failing to “disclose required information during the candidate application process”.

Liberals have been quietly saying that they do not expect to win Oxford, but they hope to get a better score than in previous elections, where their candidates were trailing behind MacKenzie by double digits.Article content When visiting the riding at the start of June, Poilievre said he thought that Conservative candidate Damir Stipanovic, an air traffic controller and first-generation immigrant,“We know that the Liberals’ popularity has dipped in Manitoba. We know the Conservatives are popular. And so the question is, is that enough to actually elect the Conservative candidate? I’m not sure it is,” said Royce Koop, professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.

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