What is behind the decline in support for Sinn Féin?

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What is behind the decline in support for Sinn Féin?
David-CullinaneMary-Lou-McdonaldPa-Daly
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The party soared on opposition to Government policy on housing but it faces a huge challenge in its positioning on immigration

At the end of 2022, one bookie had Mary Lou McDonald at 2/7 to be the next taoiseach. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins Photos

Only eight months earlier, Sinn Féin had been monstered at the local and European elections, losing two MEPs and half its council seats.Brothers awarded €95,000 each over mistaken arrest for Grafton Street handbag theftTrinity College Dublin protesters to remain ‘indefinitely’ until Israel demands are met

Publicly the party plays down the polls and wants to talk about “change”. Privately, there is significant worry. How could there not be? No matter what they say, no politician ignores the opinion polls. “The single biggest issue coming up on the doors is housing right across the country. In particular, the lack of affordable housing for working people,” Ó Broin told The Irish Times.

At the end of 2022, one bookie had Mary Lou McDonald at 2/7 to be the next taoiseach. Sinn Féin TDs had long since been told to preface their statements with phrases such as “When Sinn Féin is in government” and “A Sinn Féin government would ...” Now it made sense.On immigration, Sinn Féin was getting caught between its populist wing and its progressive wing

As protests sprang up around centres for asylum seekers, far-right groups targeted Sinn Féin, dubbing them “traitors” who were betraying their own communities. On the ground, meanwhile, some Sinn Féin TDs were working to head off outright opposition to asylum seekers. One TD explains how a series of public and private meetings and individual conversations gradually saw opposition to a local asylum centre wither away. But there was little or no political pay-off for this.

David Cullinane: 'If people are entitled to refugee status then they should be welcome to stay here and they should be looked after. But we need to return unsuccessful applicants.' Photograph: Gareth Chaney/Collins But how will this go down with the party’s progressive voters? Aidan Regan of UCD is sceptical. “If they respond by getting harder on immigration, they are in danger of losing younger urban voters to the Social Democrats,” he says.

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