Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards is the main event for UFC 278 on August 20 from the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.The biggest concern I have about Usman is the wear-and-tear on his body. He’s coming off a brutal 25-minute war with Covington, had to postpone this fight due to ligament surgery on his hand, and has knees that are in such bad shape that he reportedly can’t run.
Usman has elite wrestling and used his strength and control to beat Edwards the first time they faced. However, Edwards got the better of exchanges standing up and maintained good takedown defense, plus the ability to posture against the cage and fire offensively from the clinch position. Unlike his previous fights against Covington, Masvidal, and Burns, the champ will need to rely on his wrestling to win this one. Edwards is too crisp with his striking especially in the mid-range, and his length and straight shots out of that southpaw stance will interrupt Usman’s looping shots.
It’s easy to see why Usman is the favorite in this one, but this line is too lopsided given the tools Edwards has at his disposal. With Usman installed at -400, I’ll lean towards Edwards at +300 or better.Article content
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