Trudeau boxed in from calling early election as economic clouds gather

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Trudeau boxed in from calling early election as economic clouds gather
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It would be a risk to call voters back to the polls right now, even if the current gloomy outlook tends to make minority-government prime ministers look to an early election

What should Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals do if a recession is coming this fall and they want to stay in power?“You go sooner not later,” said Greg Lyle, the veteran pollster and political strategist who is president of Innovative Research Group. “There’s no question.”

“For most Canadians, their economic reality is going to become more difficult over the next year,” said Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management’s chief economist, in an interview.That sort of gloomy outlook tends to make minority-government prime ministers look to an early election, and there have been rumours in Ottawa that Liberal strategists are mulling the possibility.

There’s an added wrinkle this fall: The Liberals are negotiating with opposition parties over an inquiry on foreign interference in Canadian elections. It will be hard to call a new election until there has been some account of interference in 2019 and 2021. The Liberals will be keen to see a first phase of an inquiry done early to leave open the possibility of a vote in the spring of 2024.Ms.

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