There are two steep hills that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will have to climb if he hopes to turn his good polling numbers into victory in the next federal election, writes former NDP leader Tom Mulcair in his column for CTVNews.ca.
There are two steep hills that Pierre Poilievre will have to climb if he hopes to turn his good polling numbers into victory: the Greater Toronto Area and Quebec.
Harper won three elections for his newly-minted Conservatives. In the 2011 campaign that provided his only majority, he largely abandoned all hope in Quebec and concentrated his efforts elsewhere. His breakthrough in the GTA was one of the keys to that victory. Winning only a handful of Quebec seats was seen as anything but a problem for him.
About the only thing that could stop the Poilievre juggernaut in its tracks in the GTA would be an umpteenth deal between Trudeau and Singh. Why not? They’ve been shacked up for two years and are now neck-and-neck in the polls.As the next electoral rendezvous approaches, Poilievre seems to be imitating Harper’s approach with regard to Quebec: benign neglect. Yes, he’s visited several times. No, his numbers aren’t nearly as good there as they are in the rest of Canada.
If Poilievre inadvertently stumbles over that tripwire, he could easily send Quebecers flocking back to Trudeau’s Liberals in much larger numbers. There’s nothing more fickle than the Bloc Québécois vote. They know it. If a sense of peril takes hold in the electorate, the Liberals will benefit and the Bloc seat count could melt like snow under a hot spring sun.
Legault has been picking fights with Trudeau on the family reunification category of immigration, saying he wants to wrest control from the feds. On language, he’s been shamelessly pandering to the fanatical wing of Quebec nationalists, overtly attacking, the law that openly discriminates against religious minorities, will be part of the election campaign as they make their way to the Supreme Court.
Beyond facile one-liners and slogans, at some point Poilievre is going to actually have to lay out his vision for the nation’s future. So far, it’s a blank slate that his adversaries will begin to fill in, if he doesn’t do so himself. As Poilievre sides with Smith on trans restrictions, former Conservative candidate says he's 'playing with fire'
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