Though Bosnia’s demise has long been predicted, it is surviving

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Though Bosnia’s demise has long been predicted, it is surviving
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Bosnia held elections last October but the winning parties have still not agreed on how to form a government

might have a new government soon. Or maybe it won’t. No one seems to know. The country held elections last October but the winning parties have still not agreed on how to form one. In any case, Bosnia’s central government has little power; the country has three presidents, and their current chairman wishes it did not even exist. Tens of thousands of people emigrate every year, having lost any hope for the future.

From 1992 to 1995 Bosnia was the Syria of its day. Some 100,000 people died in the three-way war between the country’s communities: its Orthodox Serbs, its Catholic Croats and its Muslims . Unlike in Syria, though, Western powers intervened and eventually ended the shooting. A peace agreement was signed at an American airbase in Dayton, Ohio, and 60,000 peacekeepers were sent to make it stick. But today few believe that the complex deal made to end the war now delivers good governance.

Milorad Dodik, who has long dominated the Republika Srpska, is the current chairman of the country’s tripartite presidency. In Banja Luka, the capital of the Republika Srpska, you would hardly know you were in Bosnia. Mr Dodik says he usually travels on a passport from Serbia, and that the presidency building in Sarajevo is like a tomb. He visits Russia’s Vladimir Putin as often as he can, wants independence for his statelet and has invested in militarising his police forces.

In March Bosnia’s security minister alleged that the Croatian intelligence service had tried to force Bosniaks to smuggle arms to certain mosques. He said the plan was that they would then be discovered and the Croatian president’s claim that Bosnia was home to “thousands” of jihadists returned from the Middle East could thus be vindicated. The Croatian government ridicules the story.

When they want to, Bosnian politicians can put aside their disagreements and work together effectively. And though Bosnia’s demise has been widely and long predicted, it still functions. Yet the omens are not good. Although its economy grew by 3.1% last year, more and more people are leaving. “For 25 years I lived in hope,” says Ilija, a Croat lorry driver in Sarajevo. “Now I hate myself because of that.” Having secured the necessary permits, he is emigrating to Germany.

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