(Bloomberg) -- The Kremlin’s efforts to paralyze Ukrainian food shipments are succeeding, with a third of the country’s crop exports wiped out since its Black Sea ports were effectively blocked last month. Most Read from BloombergVietnam Tycoon Loses $18 Billion After EV Maker’s Shares SinkChina Evergrande Group Files Chapter 15 Bankruptcy in New YorkBitcoin Calm Shatters With Sudden Tumble, Mass LiquidationsJeremy Grantham Says Fed Is Kidding Itself on Avoiding a RecessionBig Tech Logs Year’s L
The drop marks a significant setback for Ukraine’s economy and global food security, even with a €1-billion push by the European Union to build out alternative routes since the start of Russia’s invasion. The US this week said it’s working with European partners to keep grain exports flowing, relying on rivers like the Danube and other avenues after sea passage has become unsafe.
Ukraine was only able to export 3.2 million tons of grains, vegetable oils and meals in the four weeks through August 15, down from 4.4 and 4.8 million tons in May and June when the Black Sea deal was still in place, according to estimates from analyst UkrAgroConsult. Crop stockpiles are now expected to swell through next year as better-than-expected harvests face fewer routes to market.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that within a month after the grain deal broke down there have already been seven attacks on ports with drones and missiles, signaling how challenging it has been to find reliable workarounds.There are also logistical hurdles: It takes four times as long for some cargoes to get to the Danube now compared to a month ago because of traffic jams, according to Alex Lissitsa, member of the board of Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
“In many regions, farmers will most likely think about reducing the sowing of winter cereals, because the prices offered by the market do not cover the costs,” said Lissitsa.
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