The Kremlin’s efforts to paralyze Ukrainian food shipments are succeeding, with a third of the country’s crop exports wiped out since its Black Sea ports were effectively blocked last month.
The drop marks a significant setback for Ukraine’s economy and global food security, even with a €1-billion push by the European Union to build out alternative routes since the start of Russia’s invasion. The US this week said it’s working with European partners to keep grain exports flowing, relying on rivers like the Danube and other avenues after sea passage has become unsafe.
Even in wartime, Ukraine is still an important grain exporter globally, and the Black Sea deal that Russia quit on July 17 helped calm global prices and maintain flows to consumers. Russia’s own grain trade is benefitting from Ukraine’s weakness. Its crop exports are booming, and are expected to make up nearly a quarter of global wheat trade in the 2023-24 season.
The delays and smaller shipment volumes are also leading to higher transport costs. Olena Vorona, operational director at the supplier Agrotrade Group, said her company completely reoriented flows to Danube ports and railways even before the grain deal collapsed, but transport costs are up to 50% higher.
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