The Case for Investing in Emerging Markets Is Fading in August

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The Case for Investing in Emerging Markets Is Fading in August
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August is turning out to be chaos for emerging markets.

Bonds and stocks from developing economies are poised for their worst monthly losses since last September after Nigeria’s central bank revealed it has less reserves than estimated, an outsider won primaries in Argentina and a presidential candidate was assassinated in Ecuador.

In the span of just a few weeks, the case for investing in developing assets has had a shakedown. Dollar-denominated government bonds have pared their 2023 rise to about 2.5% from a peak of 5.8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. An MSCI Inc. gauge of currencies, meanwhile, has wiped out much of the year’s early rally.

In Argentina, overseas bonds have tumbled since Javier Milei unexpectedly led in a closely watched presidential primary vote on Aug. 13, with vows to abolish the central bank and dollarize the economy. “Both are basket cases,” he said,” but one is deteriorating more and the other seems to be turning back into orthodoxy.”

“In Latin America. the focus is shifting from the economy to security, said Mauro Favini, a senior portfolio manager at Vanguard. “We’re seeing politicians are starting to shift away from populism and into more security concerns.”

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