Researchers turn to 19th century letters to improve climate predictions

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Researchers turn to 19th century letters to improve climate predictions
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McGill team attempting to tap into missionary writings to full gaps in African data

A team led by McGill University researchers came up with a method they hope could improve climate models over Africa by combining them with 19th century missionary records, refashioning dubious documents in a bid to better inform projections of global warming’s impact.

To fill that data gap, lead author Philip Gooding turned to a perhaps unlikely source – writings of 19th century Christian missionaries in Tanzania. Climate model uncertainty is one example of how decision-makers in Africa are left to predict and prepare for extreme weather with fewer resources than their counterparts in other parts of the world.

To plan climate-resilient communities, whether that’s around drought-resistant agriculture or flood-resilient roads, “we have to be informed by climate information.” In some cases, missionary reports may have also been exaggerated to provoke emotional responses from readers back in Europe who funded the missions. In others, reports may have minimized harsh conditions in a bid to establish the mission’s feasibility.

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