Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BMO Capital Markets analyst Randy Ollenberger first described energy sector earnings as listless but then unveils some extremely positive cash flow expectations for next year,
“Second quarter results have come and gone and the Canadian oil and gas group has delivered relatively listless share price performance since, largely due to range-bound oil prices. Q2 results were generally in line than expectations and debt levels continued to fall, translating to more cash in shareholders pockets. The outlook for Q3 is generally positive, with most companies having completed major turnarounds during Q2.
“Although fears of a broad economic slowdown have eased, it hasn’t been enough yet to reignite copper prices. In fact, the metal is now trading at $4.21/lb, down 18% from its peak in May. Our colleague covering metals and mining companies, Orest Wowkodaw, has recently lowered his copper spot price forecast for 2024 and 2025 by around 8% to $4.15/lb and $4.50/lb, respectively from $4.50/lb and $5.00/lb. The downward revision is due to lower global demand, particularly in China.
“Zeitgeist: “We present at the trade shows because customers want to see you using AI. Can’t figure out how to make any money with it, though.” The Price is Right: big support levels held in August … 3.8% GT10 , 4.0% GT30, 100 DXY 140, USDJPY, $70 oil, $60k Bitcoin; reversal higher in bond yields likely on positioning , policy , seasonality , geopolitics , protectionism; if ISM >49 then GT30 >4.3%..
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