BofA’s ‘Canada Cycle Indicator’ points to TSX outperforming S&P 500 for next 12 months

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BofA’s ‘Canada Cycle Indicator’ points to TSX outperforming S&P 500 for next 12 months
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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

BofA strategist Ohsung Kwon runs a Canada Cycle Indicator that has now turned positive, indicating TSX outperformance of the S&P 500,

“Our Canada Cycle Indicator is now in positive territory for the first time since March 2023 after improving for eight straight months. Interestingly, the CCI is rising when other indicators are starting to weaken , suggesting that Canada could be an attractive alternative in the muddled macro environment. Historically, when the CCI was positive, the TSX outperformed SPX 60% of the time by 4.2ppt over a 12-mo. period . Since June, the TSX outperformed SPX by 3.

The CCI consists of relative interest rates , earnings revision s ratio, inflation, leading economic indicators and commodity prices.RBC capital Markets analyst Pammi Bir restated top picks in the REITs sector while taking a bit of a victory lap, “Our view: Our Outperform-rated recommendations include Boardwalk, BSR, CAPREIT, Chartwell, Colliers, Dream Industrial, FirstService, First Capital, Flagship, Granite, InterRent, Killam Apartment, Minto Apartment, Morguard Residential, RioCan, SmartCentres, and StorageVault. After a strong Q1, momentum extended through Q2 with the sector delivering decent overall growth that exceeded our forecasts.

“Canada’s two biggest rail companies are both facing a potential shutdown due to labour disputes. While this is the first time we could see simultaneous stoppages in recent memory, we’ve had two major rail strikes in the past dozen years . Both were just over a week in length, and slashed rail activity in the month. While the drops are notable, weather issues have caused similar declines. And, rail accounts for less than 0.5% of GDP.

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