One of the key questions in this year’s U.S. election is whether changes to polling techniques and statistical computations have brought the polls into line with the leanings of the electorate
A person votes during early voting at a polling station in the first round of early voting at a polling place, October 21, 2024, in Deland, Florida.Election polls are one of the main currencies of U.S. presidential elections, the slivers of information that form the foundation of political strategies, the wellspring of campaign optimism and the global handicapping of who will be next to occupy the White House.
After the 2016 election, pollsters generally agreed that one of the main problems lay in the under-representation in surveys of white Americans without college degrees. To adjust, many made educational status a critical element of the population samples they polled, alongside demographic indicators such as ethnicity and age.
“These statements by Trump could have transformed survey participation into a political act whereby his strongest supporters chose not to respond to polls,” the review found. Four years later, the polling industry has taken seriously the need to ensure a poll sample does not merely reflect the demographic makeup of the country, but also its political makeup.
In an article published this week, Vanderbilt University political scientist Josh Clinton illustrated this point by taking a survey collected in mid-October and subjecting its results to various adjustments.
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