Key economic indicators from the US, China, and the Eurozone will dominate the first trading week of 2025, while traders remain cautious about the potential impact of Donald Trump's trade policies.
The first full trading week of 2025 brings key U.S. jobs data as well as Chinese and euro zone inflation numbers. These come against a backdrop of unease over the U.S. interest rate outlook and potential for policy surprises under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump , with the euro and Chinese yuan already kicking off the new year on a weak footing.Markets have made their peace - mostly - with the idea that inflation will rise under Trump , given his pledges on tariffs, taxes and immigration.
Traders barely expect two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, but still, stocks are within sight of record highs and look set for more of the same this year. What they might find harder to stomach is evidence that growth is slowing. The Jan. 10 December non-farm payrolls report is forecast to show a rise of 150,000, versus November’s 227,000 jump. A rise of 150,000 would bring 2024 job creation to 2.134 million. It’s hardly shabby, but it would be the lowest annual total, outside of a COVID-driven loss in 2020, since 2019′s 1.988 million. And if there’s anything the market needs right now, it’s proof of the resilience of the world’s largest economy.China faces a precarious start to 2025, as authorities seek to counter Trump’s threats of tariffs in excess of 60% on imports of Chinese goods. Its stock market just logged the weakest New Year start since 2016. During Trump’s first administration, Beijing allowed its currency to weaken to make exports cheaper and offset trade shocks. The yuan weakened more than 12% against the dollar in just over two years. Economists expect Trump to impose tariffs of nearly 40% this time around, which could potentially slice China’s growth by up to 1 percentage point. Beijing is reported to be mulling a weaker yuan again, though the potential magnitude of the tariffs make it almost impossible to resort to the same playboo
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