While Canada has turned to robust immigration to grow output, the U.S. has done a better job of tapping its domestic workforce and generating productivity gains
Economists expect Canada and the U.S. to compete for the top spot for growth among the Group of Seven countries in 2020, yet the latest population data reveal the two nations have starkly different forces driving their expansions.
Last year, Canada added a net 437,000 people from abroad, despite being only a tenth the size of the U.S., helping to drive its fastest population increase in 30 years, even with declines in fertility. Which development model will prevail in 2020 remains to be seen. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News are giving the U.S. an edge, with growth projected at 1.8 per cent, versus 1.6 per cent in Canada. Both forecasts are much higher than the other five G7 countries, which are seen growing by an average 0.7 per cent.Flattered by robust population increases of 1.5 per cent year-over-year, Canada’s headline growth could “easily” top the U.S.
Since 2015, the number of annual newcomers to Canada has more than doubled — the opposite of what’s happening in the U.S., where net international migration has dropped by almost half. Last year, the U.S. grew its population by 0.5 per cent — just one-third of Canada’s pace.
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