Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a short-term hit to the US economy, with a subsequent rebound, in the likely event of a federal government shutdown sometime after appropriations run out Sept. 30.
“The federal government looks more likely than not to temporarily shut down later this year,” Goldman’s chief US political economist, Alec Phillips, wrote in a note to clients Sunday. That’s thanks to a lack of consensus in Congress over annual spending bills for the fiscal year that starts in October.
Goldman’s economic team calculates that US gross domestic product could suffer a growth hit of 0.2 percentage point per week during a government-wide shutdown, including knock-on effects to the private sector. That loss would be made up in the quarter after the shutdown, Goldman anticipates.
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