By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) - After puzzling for years over the sluggish U.S. rebound from the 2007-2009 recession, the Federal Reserve ...
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THESE SALTWIRE VIDEOSBy Howard Schneider
The pandemic, with its massive hit to growth in two of those quarters in 2020 and the multi-trillion-dollar government response that followed, clouds an understanding of emerging trends. But policymakers have been surprised enough in recent years that a larger conversation is beginning - some of it couched in technical analysis of whether, for example, underlying interest rates have moved higher, some in the blunt observation that people keep behaving differently than the experts expect.
Trump's pre-COVID years ended with the unemployment rate at 3.5% in February 2020; it has been essentially at that level since March of 2022 under Biden, with the economy still adding roughly 200,000 jobs per month. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued.
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