Small-cap stocks, bitcoin climb; Mexican peso, Treasuries slip
Corners of financial markets that could feel the impact of a Donald Trump victory are stirring again, as the U.S. presidential race tightens with less than three weeks until Election Day.
Harris led Trump by a marginal 45% to 42% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday, a tighter race than the same poll showed several weeks earlier. Trump has taken the lead in online prediction markets such as Predictit and Polymarket. Due to strong economic data, however, “it’s really hard to separate cause from effect, much less separate different causes,” he said.), the former president’s media company, which have broadly tracked Trump’s fortunes in polls and online prediction markets since its listing this year.“It’s the trade that is most levered to Trump’s election prospects,” Sosnick said.), whose shares have risen about 18% and 10%, respectively, this month.
“Implied volatility in the dollar-peso pair has been ratcheting up in line with Trump’s gains in betting markets,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at payments company Corpay in Toronto.The former president’s economic policies are seen as growth-friendly and a catalyst for inflation, two factors that could translate to higher Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, and a stronger dollar.
“If Trump secures a second term, the regulatory-risk-driven discount applied to crypto would likely shrink to near-zero, and investors would need to price in the possibility, however small, of the government adopting a strategic bitcoin reserve,” he said.
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