Corners of financial markets that could feel the impact of a Donald Trump victory are stirring again, as the U.S. presidential race tightens with less than...
NEW YORK - Corners of financial markets that could feel the impact of a Donald Trump victory are stirring again, as the U.S. presidential race tightens with less than three weeks until Election Day.
Investors caution, however, that linking the investment moves to Trump this time is more difficult, as many can also be tied to rising economic optimism following a blowout U.S. jobs report this month and a 50-basis-point interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve last month. Other beneficiaries include private prison operators Geo Group and CoreCivic, whose shares have risen about 18% and 10%, respectively, this month. Trump has promised to crack down on illegal immigration, which could boost demand for detention centers.The small cap-focused Russell 2000 is up 4% since Oct. 10 and trades near its highest level since late 2021.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six major currencies, has risen more than 3% since late September, as investors price in a shallower trajectory for interest-rate cuts. Some of its gains, however, are likely related to greater confidence of a Trump win, wrote Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie.
A New York Fed gauge measuring term premium turned positive last week for the first time since July. The move has come amid a broader rise in Treasury yields.
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