Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
‘Canadian catch-up trade we have been calling for since the start of the year has finally arrived’, says BMO strategistDomestic stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin during the third quarter and BMO chief investment officer Brian Belski took a victory lap in his monthly Canadian chartbook report,
“We adjusted our S&P/TSX price target by 4% to 25,500 from 24,500 to reflect steadily improving earnings confidence and associated valuation expansion. While the S&P/TSX frankly exhibited skeptical earnings trends and sluggish price performance for most of the first half of the year, the index snapped out of its malaise in style. The TSX gained a solid 9.
“Canada’s economy might benefit initially from stronger U.S. growth, as its largest trading partner buys three-quarters of its merchandise exports. Energy producers would also rejoice if the Keystone XL pipeline was resurrected. However, the country could be one of the hardest hit from a possible trade tussle.
“First, while both a Republican sweep and Republican White House win with a split Congress have historically been good for the stock market, average annual S&P 500 returns have been much higher, on average following a sweep .
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