Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic made some strong hints that dividend stocks will be a better investment than actual real estate,
“Some investors have long been pointing to the value in Canadian dividend stocks, especially relative to an asset class like real estate, which had captivated hearts and minds . The advantages are many: Higher yield, better tax treatment, stronger payout growth, little payment risk if selected properly, minimal transaction cost and instant/partial liquidity. The lack of leverage is probably the biggest drawback, but that’s still an extensive list of benefits .
“As Q3 reporting kicks off this week, our top picks are intact. After a strong Q2, our forecasts reflect earnings growth moderating to up 1 per cent year-over-year, with seniors housing well ahead of the pack. Though bond yields remain volatile, recent cap rate data points to a plateauing trendline which should support underlying asset values and NAVs.
Mr. Bir has “outperform” ratings on Boardwalk REIT, BSR REIT, CAPREIT, Flagship Communities REIT, InterRent REIT, Killam Apartment REIT, Minto Apartment REIT, Morguard Residential REIT, Chartwell Retirement Residences, Dream Industrial REIT, Granite REIT, First Capital REIT, RioCan REIT, Smartcentres REIT, and StorageVault Canada Inc., I presented CIBC’s view that a 75 basis point rate cut Wednesday wouldn’t be surprising.
“Under the current macro backdrop, picking the right USD pair to fade is important as there are still some remaining bullish USD signals in place. For example, positioning analysis continues to show USD uptrend continuation signals vs SEK and several EM currencies. For this week, we like to hold a bearish USDCAD view given our out-of-consensus call for a 25bp BoC rate cut decision. Fundamentally we continue to estimate short-term USDCAD fair value to be on a 1.
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