The Hill Times
A version of this story first appeared in Politics This Morning, your go-to source for insider news, analysis, and updates on where the key political players are that day. Canada’s government is—unless a future prime minister decides otherwise—committed to building a high-speed rail system from Toronto to Quebec City, the Prime Minister’s Office announced on Feb.
19. Governments in Canada so rarely attempt to do big things anymore, and even more rarely succeed. We ought to at least give this idea a once-over. It’s not news that the government has been looking into better rail service along the Toronto-Quebec City corridor. The government had opted to settle for “high-frequency rail”—the same old trains, but without having to defer to cargo trains—instead of the real thing. Until it hadn’t. Still, nothing was official until Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's eve-of-an-election announcement. Here’s what we know so far. The trains: The government is promising electrified trains that will get up to 300 km/hour. That’s not quite on par with the world’s fastest bullet trains, but it’s significantly better than what we’ve got now. The PMO says the Montreal-Toronto leg would take three hours, which is about half of what it takes to travel between those cities by train now—and that’s without the customary delays. The route: The feds have already settled on a route for the rail line, or at least the fact that it will stop in Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal, Laval, Trois-Rivières, and Quebec City. Why Laval gets a stop but not, say, Mississauga, isn’t clear, but the list had to be short to make this thing feasible, and it is. The detours: Let’s talk about Peterborough for a moment. It is, we’re sure, a lovely place, as deserving of speedy rail service as any other. It is is also more or less right along the straight line between Toronto and Ottawa, and following that line would mean building fewer kilometres of track than a path that runs through Kingston, Ont., a larger city along the highway route between the two cities. Today we’re announcing the biggest infrastructure project in our nation’s history, high speed rail! Reaching speeds of up to 300 km/h, it will cut travel times in half and connect key cities in the Toronto-Quebec City corridor. This historic project will create over 51,000… pic.twitter.com/ELVEb5WDvT— Anita Anand February 19, 2025 The problem is that there aren’t any rail lines at present connecting Peterborough with Ottawa. When the Globe and Mail reported on the government’s planning for high-speed rail in October, he wrote—after speaking with a “senior government official”—that the high-speed service “would run parallel and to the north of the tracks currently used by Via Rail.” Those tracks run through Kingston, but nowhere near Peterborough. There aren’t any active rail lines at present connecting Peterborough with Ottawa. There are railway tracks that go to Peterborough, which we can see thanks to the Railway Association of Canada’s Rail Atlas tool. They don't connect to Ottawa, however.A close look at the map, however, shows the remnants of an old railway line that does span most of the gap. How much of it the government could acquire for its high-speed rail project, and how easily, isn't obvious. The government will want to avoid having to expropriate land as much as possible; doing so is a costly, lengthy, and politically-unpopular process. We have the same problem with Trois-Rivières, on a smaller scale. There is currently no passenger train service to the city. The tracks on which VIA Rail currently ferries passengers from Montreal to Quebec City run 30 km to the south, and the tracks on which VIA runs to Jonquiere are to the north. There are cargo rail lines running through the city, and most of the way from that southern VIA line to Trois-Rivières. The players: You won’t have to look far to find some familiar players attached to the high-speed rail project. VIA Rail, Canada’s current provider of decidedly low-speed intercity rail service , is in the mix. The whole project is being overseen by VIA HFR, a Crown corporation established to monitor the high-frequency rail project that the government was very serious about pursuing until yesterday. VIA HFR operates with, but at “arm’s length” from, VIA Rail proper. Also, VIA HFR has now been named “Alto,” possibly to put it at “arm’s length” from the sour news headlines about VIA Rail. Alto will “co-develop” the project along with Cadence, a consortium of companies that banded together to submit the winning bid to build the project. That consortium includes our old friends SNC-Lavalin, who have rebranded themselves as AtkinsRealis. It gets stranger. Air Canada—not known for its trains, or its customer service—is also a member. CDPQF Infra, an offshoot of a Quebec pension fund, is in there as well. The rest of the consortium comes from France, including an entity directly owned by the French government: SNCF Voyageurs. A pair of private French firms are also involved, and, thankfully, they seem to have some experience with railways: Keolis and Systra, the latter of which advertises its involvement with high-speed rail projects in nine countries. The cost: We don’t have a final price tag for the project, but we know it will cost a lot. The feds have committed to $3.9-billion for a “co-development phase” of the project, which won’t involve building any actual track or trains. The PMO did not provide any other cost estimate in its release yesterday. For reference, Transport Canada looked at the cost of a high-speed rail line from Quebec City to Windsor, Ont.—about 350 km longer than the route currently being proposed—and estimated that it would cost $21.3-billion to build it. That was back in 2011, using 2009 dollars. In 2025 dollars, that would come to about $30-billion. Transport Minister Anita Anand. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade In 2021, the University of Toronto’s Munk School estimated that it would cost $12-billion to construct a high-speed rail line between Toronto and Montreal, or $14-billion in 2025 dollars. That route is about 250 km shorter than the line proposed yesterday, or possibly more, depending on the size of the detour needed to get trains to Trois-Riviéres.That’s before politics comes into play, of course. A trade war probably wouldn’t help with the cost. The United Steelworkers Union was quick out of the gate, issuing a press release calling on politicians to ensure that Canadian steelworkers get their cut of the action if any railways are built. The Munk School estimate also worked out that it would cost roughly $300-million per year to operate the high-speed rail line—again, that’s the figure if it stops at Montreal—and that the operator would have to charge about $109 per ticket in order to break even over 66 years. VIA Rail is currently charging between $55 and $118 for one-way train service between the two cities, depending on the day that you book. The price of airline tickets fluctuates even more dramatically, from less than $100 to nearly $400 or more. Get more insider coverage directly to your inbox from The Hill Times' editor Peter Mazereeuw and reporter Riddhi Kachhela in this subscriber-only daily newsletter. Sign up for Politics This Morning here. The Hill Times
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