A sharp repricing in U.S. interest rate cut expectations could give more fuel to a searing bond rally triggered by weakening economic data, as investors...
NEW YORK - A sharp repricing in U.S. interest rate cut expectations could give more fuel to a searing bond rally triggered by weakening economic data, as investors grapple with the possibility the Federal Reserve may need to loosen its tight grip on the economy much faster than anticipated to avoid a recession.
The 2/10 yield curve, which has been continuously inverted for more than two years, was at minus 9 basis points - the closest it has been to turning positive since the inversion started. In the last four recessions, that curve had turned positive a few months before the economy started contracting. The slowdown in July employment followed data showing a surprise slump in U.S. manufacturing last month, which had already pushed Treasury yields to multi-month lows on Thursday.
Others in the market struck a more cautious tone, with some analysts observing that the underlying labor data for July were not as weak as the headline numbers suggested. Josh Shapiro gave a scathing review of J.D. Vance’s standing in Republican politics on Friday, calling the VP-hopeful a “total phony baloney” who “doesn’t know what he believes.” The snarky response came during a press conference after a reporter told Shapiro that Vance had attacked him by claiming his speeches sounded like an “impression of a really bad Barack Obama.” “Barack Obama is probably our most gifted orator of my time, so it’s kind of a weird insult, I guess,” Shapiro began.
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Interest Rate Treasury Yields Unemployment Rate Percentage Point Federal Reserve Employment Data
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