The longest and deepest U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion in history, a key bond market signal of an upcoming recession, could be nearing its end. While...
NEW YORK - The longest and deepest U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion in history, a key bond market signal of an upcoming recession, could be nearing its end.
Several Wall Street firms expected a recession to occur last year because of higher borrowing costs, but continued economic resilience defied those projections. Economists polled by Reuters this month expect the U.S. economy will keep expanding over the next two years. A majority of bond strategists polled by Reuters earlier this year said the curve was no longer a reliable recession signal.
The curve typically turns positive because a slowing economy leads to markets anticipating the Fed will cut rates, causing a rally in short-term debt more than in longer-dated bonds. Yields decline when bond prices increase. “We are at an important point today, because now the yield curve ... is getting steeper, and that's usually when we run into some trouble,” said George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management.
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Inverted Yield Curve U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
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