Latest Abacus Alberta Poll: UCP leads NDP in Alberta with one week to go.
After the leaders’ debate last Thursday, we launched our second last survey of the campaign to gauge what impact the debate and campaign may be having on voting intentions. The survey was conducted from May 19 to 22, 2023, and surveyed 1,507 eligible voters in Alberta online.
Among likely voters, the UCP leads by 4 over the NDP with 10% of likely voters saying they are still undecided with one week to go in the election. Based on the sample size of likely voters there’s a 90% probability that the UCP is ahead province-wide a UCP lead as wide as 10% and an NDP lead as big as 2%.
Views of the leaders remain deeply polarized and predictive of vote choice. 78% of UCP voters have a positive view of Smith and 90% have a negative view of Notley. In contrast, 80% of NDP voters have a positive view of Notley while 87% have a negative view of Smith. Of those who thought neither Smith nor Notley did the most to earn their vote, 45% are voting NDP, 29% UCP and 21% are undecided. 92% of those who thought Smith did the best are voting UCP. 92% of those who thought Notley did the best are voting NDP. The debate, for many, didn’t clarify the choice enough.
What it shows is that the NDP hasn’t fully convinced those who are uncomfortable about the UCP to vote NDP. For example, 11% of those likely voters who think the UCP is the most risky are still voting UCP and 11% are undecided. Moreover, 8% of those who think the NDP is best on healthcare are voting UCP anyway.
The deep divide on almost every measure show how polarized the choice in this campaign has become. NDP voters really don’t like Smith while UCP voters really don’t like Notley. Almost equal numbers think the NDP and UCP are the most risky and scary choice. The UCP still has an opportunity to put the economy into frame while healthcare remains the NDP’s strongest card.
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