Ontario PCs open up a 9-point lead: Why Doug Ford is well positioned to be re-elected.
By David Coletto
Since April, the PCs are up 2, the Liberals down 3, and the NDP and Greens are holding fairly steady. The PCs also have a big lead among those who own their home. In the GTHA , the PCs lead by 6 among those who own their home but trail the Liberals by 13 among renters. Outside of the GTHA, the PCs lead by 35-points over the Liberals.
Perhaps most important, “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split almost evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention. Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, orCase in point, if half of “change voters” currently favouring the NDP switch to the Liberals, then they would be even with the PCs in vote intention.
Unless the other parties can close this issue advantage or another issue rises to prominence over the next three weeks, the PC advantage will persist. The anger against Doug Ford is no longer as widespread as it was in the past. About 1 in 4 have a “very negative” view of the Premier and among this group, 39% are voting Liberal while 38% will vote NDP. The split among opposition parties is a big factor explaining Ford’s lead.
But the data also shows a path forward for either the NDP or the Liberals. Neither has a clear advantage among those people who deeply want to see the PCs and Doug Ford replaced. Both leaders, for different reasons, remain blank slates for millions of Ontarians who either don’t know them or don’t have strong views . Strong performances in the debates or a mistake by the PCs could create an opportunity to consolidate the anti-PC forces.
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