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Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy told a Banff business forum there is zero chance the United States would invade Canada, while Prime Minister Mark Carney says Ottawa studied the risk and Canada's military readiness.
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy says there is zero chance the United States would launch a military attack on Canada, dismissing the idea during an onstage discussion at the Global Business Forum in Banff, Alta.
Governor Dismisses U S Invasion Fear
The Republican governor told the conference that the notion of a U.S. invasion would be shocking to the average American, and joked that Pennsylvania has a better chance of being invaded by West Virginia. His remarks came days after Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times that his government has studied the extreme tail risk of U.S.-led military action against Canada.
Carney also said Ottawa carefully examined the risk of a possible U.S. invasion and weighed Canada's military readiness. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted he wants to make Canada the 51st state, but has said he would pursue that goal through economic coercion rather than military force. Jody Thomas, who served as national security and intelligence adviser to former prime minister Justin Trudeau, called a U.S. invasion an improbable, slightly impossible notion during her appearance at the same forum.
Thomas said that in such an unlikely scenario, negotiations would kick into high gear right away among top military and diplomatic officials. She said there would be maybe a few days of mobilization and movement before it would stop, because Canada would not want harm done to its citizens and would not want to see loss of life.
Political Dimension Added to Debate
Dunleavy's comments added a cross-border political dimension to the debate, with a Republican governor from a state bordering Canada directly rejecting the idea of military confrontation between the two allies. Carney's disclosure that Ottawa has weighed the extreme tail risk of U.S. military action marked a rare public acknowledgment that the Canadian government has examined scenarios once considered far outside normal planning.
The discussion in Banff unfolded against a backdrop of repeated rhetoric from Trump about Canada becoming the 51st state, a proposal that has drawn broad opposition in Canada. The forum brought together business and political figures to discuss global economic and security issues, with the U.S.-Canada relationship emerging as a central topic.
Thomas said that even in a highly improbable invasion scenario, top military and diplomatic officials would move quickly into negotiations, and that any movement would likely halt within days because of Canada's desire to avoid harm to its citizens. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 25, 2026. Lauren Krugel, The Canadian Press
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CTVToronto:This story was compiled and edited by the HeadTopics newsroom and HT AI from the reports above.
Politics Mike Dunleavy Mark Carney U.S.-Canada Relations Global Business Forum U.S. Invasion Risk
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