The World Trade Organization halved its growth forecast for global goods trade this year, saying that persistent inflation, higher interest rates, a strained Chinese property market and the war in Ukraine had cast a shadow over its outlook. The Geneva-based trade body said on Thursday merchandise trade volumes would increase by just 0.8% in 2023, compared with its April estimate of 1.7%. For 2024, it said goods trade growth would pick up to 3.3%, a forecast virtually unchanged from its April estimate of 3.2%.
GENEVA - The World Trade Organization halved its growth forecast for global goods trade this year, saying that persistent inflation, higher interest rates, a strained Chinese property market and the war in Ukraine had cast a shadow over its outlook.
The WTO said the trade slowdown was broad-based, involving a larger number of countries and goods, though particularly iron and steel, office and telecoms equipment, textiles and clothing.The WTO said risks to its forecast were balanced. A sharper than expected slowdown in China and resurgent inflation, keeping interest rates higher for longer, were potential negatives. However, a rapid easing of inflation could raise the forecast.
The WTO said it was not clear if the decline was due to geopolitical tensions or the general economic slowdown.
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