Canadian unity is under greater threat than at any time since the last referendum
John Ibbitson is writer at large at The Globe and Mail. Darrell Bricker is chief executive of Ipsos Public Affairs.
But the tectonic forces that were at work then are even more powerful today. The Big Shift 2.0 is approaching, stronger than ever, and reinforced by a surge in support for conservative governments among young people frustrated by their lack of prospects – the same surge that sweptThese shifts in the political landscape put not only the future of the Liberal Party at risk, but the future of the country as well.
But by the second decade of this century, it was clear to us that the influence of the Laurentian elite was weakening, for two reasons. First, Western Canada was growing in population and influence. The four Western provinces had surpassed Quebec and Atlantic Canada in population, while the oil and gas sector of Alberta and Saskatchewan had become a major driver of the Canadian economy.
As it turned out, the Liberals returned as the dominant progressive party. For the Laurentian elite, the universe once again appeared to be unfolding as it should.. But “the conservative coalition is also broad and deep and coherent. If the party takes its time and chooses its next leader wisely, without being distracted by nostalgists or narrow ideologues, the Conservatives will be very competitive in the next election and in elections to come.
They have virtually ceased to exist in the West. In Ontario, the Liberal caucus is so small it lacks party standing in the legislature. The provincial Liberals are polling around 20 per cent in Quebec. The party remains competitive in Atlantic Canada, but that region now accounts for less than 7 per cent of Canada’s population.
We’d be tempted to say we told you so, except we’re alarmed by something we missed completely when we wrote our book, something that is only now becoming clear to us and to others as well.Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, whose Parti Québécois has a healthy lead in the polls, has vowed that a PQ government will hold a referendum on sovereignty in its first term in office. He envisions an independent Quebec before the end of the decade.
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