The Russian president’s aim is probably to deter the West from offering further support to Ukraine. In recent days that support has been increasing
declared war on Ukraine in the early hours of February 24th, he warned the West to stay out of it. “Whoever tries to hinder us… should know that Russia's response…will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history,” he said. It was interpreted as a barely veiled threat to use nuclear weapons. On February 27th, several days into his war, and without much to show for the fighting so far, Mr Putin removed the veil entirely.
This does not mean Mr Putin is preparing a nuclear strike. “Announcing it means that it is primarily a political message designed to impress us,” says Bruno Tertrais, an expert on nuclear deterrence at the Foundation for Strategic Research, a think-tank in Paris. “If he was getting ready to use nuclear weapons he would not [say so first].
It said it would send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles “as quickly as possible”. It also allowed the Netherlands and Estonia to send rocket-propelled grenade launchers and howitzers respectively. The next day it went even further, announcing a huge expansion in defence spending, with a special fund of €100bn .
Once that happens, he says, the system is designed to allow a launch to occur even if Mr Putin is incapacitated—though that requires detecting a nuclear detonation on Russian soil. In addition to all that, “combat duty” might also trigger other preparations, such as nuclear-armed submarines leaving port or weapons being loaded onto bombers—things that would be visible to America and its allies through satellites and other means.
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