Window narrowing for Canada to hit COVID-19 vaccination targets needed to avoid worst of fourth wave

While the push is on to boost vaccination levels, especially among younger Canadians, new modelling shows potential for COVID-19 cases to rise past numbers seen during the last wave of the pandemic

Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam provides an update on the COVID-19 pandemic during a press conference in Ottawa, November 2020.Canada is in a race against the clock to vaccinate enough people to avoid the worst-case scenarios of a fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic, driven by the highly contagious Delta variant.

The unofficial end of summer in Canada is also when colder weather and a return to classrooms will start driving more people inside. “This time is crucial for building up protection before we gather in schools, colleges, university and workplaces,” she said.for eligible people in order to limit the impact of the fourth wave. Dr. Tam said her agency put the focus on protecting hospitals, but added vaccination shouldn’t stop at 80 per cent coverage.

The Friday modelling also showed that even with 85 per cent full vaccination coverage, cases could surge to about 7,500 a day by the start of September if individual contacts increase by 25 per cent. If the number of people we come in contact with stays unchanged, the modelling predicts about 1,300 daily new cases by September. The trajectory will depend on how high Canada can push its vaccination coverage and “the timing, pace and extent of reopening,” Dr. Tam said.

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