'Something can be said about what looks to be a contest between Trump and GovRonDeSantis. The history of primary contests, since they became the dominant means of choosing presidential nominees in 1972, provides some perspective,' MichaelBarone writes.
Prognostications this far ahead of such contests have a sad history. Just ask Rudy Giuliani or Jeb Bush what it felt like when the balloon drop started after their acceptance speeches.Nevertheless, something can be said about what looks to be a contest between former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis . The history of primary contests, since they became the dominant means of choosing presidential nominees in 1972, provides some perspective.
This change reflects a change in the parties. In the 1970s, Democrats held majorities in most state legislatures and had many more primary voters and tended to set the rules and schedule. Now, Republicans have more legislatures and about as large and rowdy a primary electorate. Next year, Democrats may renominate their incumbent president, as they did in 1996 and 2012, while Republicans will probably, despite the announced candidacy of former Gov. Nikki Haley , be headed to a two-candidate race.
But the dominance of noncollege white people in Republican primaries can be overstated. If McCain and Romney prevailed by only narrow margins over Huckabee and Santorum in primaries in Michigan and Ohio, Trump won the nomination in 2016 with only a 44% plurality of votes in a 16-candidate field. This is in line with such multicandidate polling as has been conducted. After the November midterm elections showed backlash against Trump-supported candidates, Trump’s lead over DeSantis dropped to 47% to 29% and is currently 44% to 29%. That number is almost identical to the 45% of votes he received in all 2016 primaries and caucuses.
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