Who is winning the June 2 provincial election? With the Ontario campaign officially starting next Wednesday, the Star is launching its election predictor, The Signal, to try to answer that question
It then extrapolates that data to determine how many seats in the 124-member legislature each party would win if the election were held that day.
“We will run an update daily so long as there is a poll that’s been released within that 24-hour cycle,” said Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University political science professor and the CEO of Vox Pop Labs. “We’re the only ones in Canada to use the Bayesian model, which is very complex. We run hundreds of thousands of simulations on a super computer. It is a demanding model,” van der Linden said Wednesday.Unlike some poll aggregators that may treat all public-opinion research surveys the same, The Signal examines a polling firm’s historic “house effect” that can influence its results.
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