A mild stock market rally to kick off the new year will be put to the test Thursday when investors face a highly-awaited inflation reading which could well...
Investors should not have unrealistic expectations regarding the pace at which U.S. inflation subsides in 2023, analysts argue, ahead of Thursday’s consumer price index report for December which may test the mild rally in stocks in the new year and may determine the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate rise in February.
The December CPI will be particularly important for influencing the Fed’s decision in its upcoming meeting which concludes February 1, said economists at Pimco. They expect the inflation and labor market data will have moderated sufficiently will push the central bank to pause rate hikes before their May meeting.
“Inflation swaps currently see inflation falling below 2.5% by the summer of 2023, which seems hopeful,” Kramer said. “This week’s CPI reading will be essential in maintaining that view and could prove disastrous if CPI comes in hotter than expected, veering market-based inflation expectations off course.”
See: ‘A year of two halves’: Stifel’s Barry Bannister expects a near-term rally in U.S. stocks — and trouble later in 2023
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