Why Saudi Arabia’s output hit won’t lead to shocking prices at the gas pump

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Why Saudi Arabia’s output hit won’t lead to shocking prices at the gas pump
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'There is no reason to run out to fill up. You aren’t going to wake up tomorrow (or later) to a massive spike like what we've seen in previous dramatic events.”

Global crude production has taken a serious hit following the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities, leading to a spike in oil prices, but for gasoline — and U.S. drivers — this market-moving event couldn’t have come at a better time.

On Monday afternoon, the average per-gallon price for regular gasoline stood at $2.560, compared with yesterday’s average of $2.559, according to gas-price tracker GasBuddy.The “timing is fortunate,” said Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service by IHS Markit. “If this happened four months ago, we could be talking about a much more significant retail [gasoline] price spike.

He also pointed out that the amount of oil the U.S. imports from Saudi Arabia has reached its lowest level in at least a decade. At the pump, however, “I don’t think it’s going to be a drastic move,” he said, adding that prices may potentially move higher, in the 10-cents-a-gallon vicinity, over the next couple of days.

Drivers will “probably notice,” but “I'd classify this as minor still, compared to such events like Hurricane Harvey, Katrina or refinery outages like in 2015 when BP’s Whiting, Ind., refinery went down,” he said. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump tweeted that he had authorized the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if needed.

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