Why new fighting in Azerbaijan's troubled region may herald a new war

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Why new fighting in Azerbaijan's troubled region may herald a new war
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Azerbaijan's launch of reportedly intense artillery firing in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday raised fears that another full-scale conflict with Armenia could be underway, less than three years after a war that killed more than 6,000 people.

Nagorno-Karabakh, with a population of about 120,000, is an ethnic Armenian region of Azerbaijan that has been a flashpoint since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The region and sizable surrounding territories came under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by the Armenian military at the 1994 end of a separatist war. Azerbaijan regained the territories and parts of Nagorno-Karabakh itself in fighting in 2020.

Most of the Azeri population was driven out by the end of the fighting in 1994. Then amid the 2020 fighting, around 90,000 ethnic Armenians were displaced, some of them setting their homes ablaze before Azeris could resettle. Although the shipments suggested the crisis could be easing slowly, Azerbaijan's report of military and civilian mine deaths on Tuesday escalated tensions and Azerbaijan then launched the artillery operation.Armenia has repeatedly criticized Russian peacekeepers for failing to keep the Lachin Corridor open and for disregarding sporadic small clashes along the border.

Russia's involvement in ending the 2020 war was seen as a significant accomplishment that boosted its influence in the region. But its esteem has seriously eroded over the past year.Russia doesn't appear eager to step into the new conflict.

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