Indian bonds, the rupee and some stocks are set for big gains after JP Morgan said it will add India to its benchmark emerging market bond index.
Benchmark 10-year yields drop four basis points to 7.13%, while the rupee gains 0.2% to 82.9275 per dollar.
“Only 30% of GBI-EM investors have actual India exposure in their portfolios, according to our proprietary database. Hence, the timing of the announcement is a nice surprise”“We like long 10-year bonds outright without FX hedge and we also add a bond to our paying 5-year overnight indexed swap trade as we expect the asset swap to tighten”
India OIS rates are likely to come off faster in the near term, as swap hedges to bond positions get unwound amid JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s decision to add the country to its key index Total demand from banks, investors and index related flows will likely account for over 90% of net supply in FY25, meaning demand for bonds “could exceed supply by 900b rupees next year”
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