Economists are getting a dose of humility on forecasting inflation after a resurgent coronavirus, a tenuous global supply network and stimulus-fueled consumers combined to send U.S. prices well beyond the expectations of Wall Street and policy makers.
Economists are getting a dose of humility on forecasting inflation after a resurgent coronavirus, a tenuous global supply network and stimulus-fueled consumers combined to send U.S. prices well beyond the expectations of Wall Street and policymakers.showed a 6.2% annual jump in consumer prices that exceeded all projections. The October data indicated a broadening of inflationary pressures, which previously had been confined to categories mostly associated with the economy’s reopening.
Since the start of the year, economists have been forced to ratchet up their projections for consumer price growth. What was once expected to be a Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell and many of his colleagues have repeatedly said this year that inflation pressures will prove transitory. Last week Powellhe won’t entertain interest rate increases until the labor market heals further, even though inflation could run hot for months.
The thinking was that as more people traveled, dined out and attended entertainment venues, the less they would spend on merchandise. That would, in turn, help remove some of the strains on the supply chain.The latest numbers on rising inflation are a reminder of how President Biden’s first year has become bogged down with economic challenges.
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