In an effort to promote his administration’s response to the public health crisis, the president had previously seized upon earlier, less dire estimates provided by the IHME model
A prominent model used by the White House to predict the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak on Monday revised its estimated death toll sharply upward, and is now projecting the disease could result in more than 74,000 fatalities across the United States by early August.
Because the forecast cuts off before the fall, when many epidemiologists anticipate a second wave of the outbreak to hit the U.S., even that revised projection could be a gross underestimate of the coronavirus’ ultimate death toll. “In combination — less abrupt peaks and slower declines in daily COVID-19 deaths following the peak — many places in the U.S. could have higher cumulative deaths from the novel coronavirus,” the IHME concluded.his own appraisal of the likely U.S. death toll, acknowledging more Americans would perish than he had recently predicted.
In an effort to promote his administration’s response to the public health crisis, the president had previouslyearlier, less dire estimates provided by the IHME model — touting last week its projection that the coronavirus would kill as few as 60,000 Americans.
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