When Will the U.S. Run Out of Cash? The Answer Is Complicated.

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When Will the U.S. Run Out of Cash? The Answer Is Complicated.
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The U.S. reached its statutory $31.4 trillion debt limit on Jan. 19, forcing the Treasury Department to begin using accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to conserve cash and avoid breaching the cap. When will the U.S. run out of cash?

Bernie Sanders speaks to members of the press on Capitol Hill on March 7, 2023.

While Treasury has the most sophisticated cash management system in the world and employs teams of highly trained economists, its coffers are a blur of payments going out and tax revenues coming in. When its cash balance runs painfully low — as was the case Wednesday, when the Treasury General Account started the day with less than $100 billion — pinpointing the X-date becomes even harder to predict. In many respects, that is because the moment that a default would occur is a moving target.

Another surprising reason that cash is running lower than some budget experts projected is that the IRS is starting to operate more efficiently. As a result of the $80 billion that the agency received as part of the Inflation Reduction Act last year, it has been able to ramp up hiring and chip away at the backlog of unprocessed tax returns.

The Congressional Budget Office said in a report last week that an expected influx of quarterly tax receipts on June 15 and the availability of additional extraordinary measures would probably allow the government to continue financing operations through at least the end of July.

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