It’s still too soon to know whether more Americans are actually identifying as Republicans. More, via FiveThirtyEight:
But it’s still too soon to know whether more Americans are actually identifying as Republicans. Gallup’s finding could portend a lasting change, or it could also be a short-term reaction to an unpopular Democratic president, or it could be an artifact of lower response rates by Democrats frustrated with bad news for their party — or it could relate to all of the above. After all, political science research has found that.
To that point, there are two ways of looking at Gallup’s party ID data: quarterly and annually. In the quarterly data, you can see that party ID is volatile. In general, it favors Democrats, but there are numerous spikes in the data as well as instances when Republicans have had the advantage.
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