Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine are keeping investors on edge.
President Joe Biden on Friday said he believed Russian leader Vladimir Putin had made up his mind to invade in coming days but that until he does there was still scope for diplomacy. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken are set to meet in the week ahead if an invasion doesn’t occur beforehand.
Oil, however, failed to get a lift from Ukraine tensions, though invasion fears were credited the previous week for driving both the U.S. CL.1 CL00 and global BRN00 benchmarks to seven-year highs not far below the $100-a-barrel threshold. Instead, prospects of a revived Iran nuclear accord, which could eventually lift U.S. sanctions on the country’s crude exports, prompted profit-taking as crude futures ended a streak of eight weekly gains.
“While we remain optimistic that a diplomatic resolution and/or de-escalation will ultimately result, this is not a certainty with tensions high. A favorable outcome would reduce the current geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices and return oil closer to our year-end target of $80,” he wrote.
“We suspect that neither the West or Russia has much appetite for curtailing the trade in energy, and that prices could fall back fairly swiftly,” wrote commodities analysts at Capital Economics, in a note.
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