What the latest polling on Pres. Trump’s removal does (and doesn’t) mean. Via FiveThirtyEight:
released this week: Americans were evenly divided on whether to remove Trump from office, but they approved of the House’s decision to impeach by 7 points .
Opponents of Trump might be tempted to think that having 48 percent of the country behind his removal bodes poorly for his reelection chances. I wouldn’t be remains pretty bad — but there are several reasons why we can’t assume that this means at least 48 percent of the country will also vote against Trump in November. First, although they are few and far between, at leastof those who support removal self-identify as Republicans.
In addition, many — if not most — polls asking about removal are conducted among all adults, not amongthan the adult population. So a pollster that shows narrow support for Trump’s removal could actually begin to show narrow opposition to it with a sample limited to likely voters. The upshot is that we can’t actually say with much confidence whether impeachment is hurting Trump’s reelection chances. Nor is it even clear it’s having any affect
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