If war began, Taiwan would probably have to fight China alone for a time. The longer it can hold out, the likelier it is to win sympathy, admiration and military support
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskWith China and Russia declaring their friendship has “no limits”, Taiwanese fear they will be the next prey. How to survive? In the bookshop, a former naval signaller and a Krav Maga martial-arts instructor lead discussions on disaster planning, self-defence, mutual aid, treating wounds and more. Such workshops have become especially popular since the invasion of Ukraine, notes T.H. Schee, the signaller.
Defence spending has been unpopular in Taiwan, in part because of the legacy of nearly four decades of military dictatorship, which ended in 1987. The armed forces are shrinking as they give way to an all-volunteer force. What little remains of conscription—four months for men—is regarded as a waste of time and often shirked. The infantry’s strongest skills, Mr Schee quips, are “painting walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”.
But Ukraine is a largish country in the heart of Europe; Taiwan is a smallish island-state. Taiwan is thus blessed and cursed by what John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago calls “the stopping power of water”. Taiwan is harder for a foe to invade, but also harder for its friends to resupply. Another difference is economic heft. It will be tougher for the West to impose sanctions on China of the kind it has used to punish Russia.
Nothing Mr Xi learns from foreign examples is likely to alter his fundamental approach. He still favours reunification without fighting, but is prepared to use force, particularly if Taiwan makes a dash for independence. The signs are that China’s leader, who is 68, wants to achieve unification within his lifetime, ahead of his stated goal of “national rejuvenation” by 2049, the centenary of the communist victory.
Taiwan still espouses an asymmetric strategy, but Mr Lee’s vision appears to have been watered down through a combination of individual services’ love of expensive kit and genuine doubts. Taiwan is buying and developing mines and anti-ship, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, but far too few, argues Mr Lee. He and American critics question the billions being spent on expensive systems—be they indigenous attack submarines or Americanjets.
For all Japan’s pacifist leanings, there is a growing realisation that it is bound to be involved in any war over Taiwan. To help Taiwan, America would rely on its bases in Japan. China may attack them, either pre-emptively or in response to intervention. It could try to seize the disputed Senkaku islands near Taiwan, which Japan controls, or otherwise violate Japanese territorial waters or airspace.
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