Will the coronavirus outbreak become a pandemic? Experts say the odds are low
Confirmed cases of novel coronavirus have been steadily increasing on a daily basis, but the latest data shows a shocking new number: Worldwide cases of the virus jumped by nearly 3,000 in the last 24 hours. In the wake of the news, fears are spiking that the outbreak may become a pandemic — following in the footsteps of the 2009 flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 100,000 and 400,000 people.
While official numbers suggest there are less than 18,000 cases of the new virus in China, new research released in The Lancet on Monday estimates the real number is closer to 75,000 in the city of Wuhan, where coronavirus originated. This may be due to China drastically underestimating the size of the outbreak in the days and weeks after the virus began.
“A pandemic just means that there are many cases of infectious diseases in multiple parts of the world and that it constitutes something that’s above the baseline rate that you’d expect,” infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, MD, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, tells Yahoo Lifestyle. “It doesn’t say anything about severity.”
Still, William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, says “it has potential.” He’s especially concerned about the virus taking hold in Africa, where infectious disease control practices aren’t as strong as they are in other areas of the world where the virus has spread. “My nagging concern is if there are cases that are introduced into Africa, then it can spread widely,” he says.
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