The wild ride for the global economy & markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge & extreme measures the Federal Reserve will be forced to take to bring prices under control
The wild ride for the global economy and markets this year is in no small part the consequence of the growing recognition of the scale of the US inflation challenge and the extreme measures the Federal Reserve will be forced to take to bring prices under control. When the Fed began raising rates in March, markets were pricing in a terminal rate of just 2.8%. As of mid-November, that expectation has risen to 5%—matching the forecast Bloomberg Economics set out in July.
That assumption ignores some hard-learned lessons from the 1970s that linked high inflation to lower productivity: All of those factors that weighed on productivity growth in the 1970s are also present today, suggesting a high risk that potential growth may be downshifting from its already low pace before the Covid-19 pandemic.
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