Scientists have more questions than answers about the new coronavirus
A patient is transferred by an ambulance to the Infectious Disease Centre of Princess Margaret Hospital on January 22, 2020, in Hong Kong, China. Photo: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images As the number of cases of Wuhan coronavirus continue to spike, and fears of a pandemic rise, scientists and public-health officials are scrambling to understand the scope and threat of the new outbreak.
But the actual number of infections is probably much higher, according to researchers studying the epidemic. The other question is how cases of 2019-nCoV will be severe enough to be detected at all. If people infected with the new coronavirus only show mild symptoms, or none at all, they are unlikely to end up counted among the total number of cases.
For comparison with previous coronavirus epidemics, SARS had a mortality rate of about 10 percent, and the mortality rate of MERS, which was not as easily transmissible between humans as SARS, was roughly 35 percent. Like influenza, this coronavirus spreads through both direct and indirect contact. Direct contact occurs through the physical transfer of the microorganism among friends and family through close contact with oral secretions. Indirect contact results when an infected person coughs or sneezes, spreading coronavirus droplets on nearby surfaces, including knobs, bedrails, and smartphones.
When scientists and public-health officials estimate how easily a new infection will spread, they try to determine the outbreak’s reproduction number, or R0 — the average number of people who will catch the infection from someone else who has it. So any infection with an R0 higher than one would be something to worry about.
How can this new coronavirus be prevented, detected, and treated? Regarding physical barriers to transmission, proper hand hygiene and the use of gloves, masks, goggles, and medical gowns will reduce the risk of infection in the event someone is exposed to a person with 2019-nCoV.
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