Ukraine is a direct affront to Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian Russia. He may see war as essential to his survival
s on or near Ukraine’s border, according to its government. Other estimates put the number above 70. It is by far the largest concentration of military force seen in Europe since the end of the cold war. And only Vladimir Putin can say how, or if, it will be put to use.
But there was a marked increase in tension around January 23rd, when various embassies started withdrawing people from Kyiv. Young members of the middle class are making contingency plans to leave Kyiv or to move family members out of regions where fighting looks more likely. Official reassurance does little to help when it tips over to absurdity.
This all explains why some observers in Russia see it as possible for Mr Putin to lay his cards down and walk away from the table, reserving the right to pick them back up at a later date. Given the risks that war would pose for the Russian economy, the fortunes of Mr Putin’s coterie and the mood of the people, they think he would be mad not to. But that does not mean he will. His personal calculus may be different from theirs.
There is also an argument from self-preservation. Russian leaders routinely conflate enemies at home with his enemies abroad. A Western plot to destroy Russia which uses both “foreign agents” at home and catspaws abroad allows Mr Putin to portray himself as the resolute leader of an embattled Russia. This is self-serving but it may also, in its way, be sincere.
This is one reason why Ukraine’s Centre for Defence Strategies, a think-tank, calls a “hybrid invasion” likelier than a traditional one. Thesays such an effort would involve cyber-attacks, disinformation and psychological operations like bomb threats. There have been several hundred recent bomb scares across Ukraine aimed at schools, political offices and other non-military targets.
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