What are the systemic risks of an Evergrande collapse?

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What are the systemic risks of an Evergrande collapse?
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A sweeping clampdown on internet-technology companies by Xi Jinping, China’s president, has wiped out more than $1trn in shareholder value since early this year

This article was updated at 6am BST on September 22nd, to take account of Evergrande’s announcement that it would make a coupon payment the next day.authorities are honing a new skill: the “marketised default”—or an orderly market exit and well-managed restructuring for troubled companies. The term has surfaced in government documents and local media as of late, as regulators become adept at managing larger, more frequent and highly complex defaults. They have had some successes.

Hong Kong-traded shares in one large Shanghai-based group, Sinic Holdings, collapsed by nearly 90% on September 20th on fears that it, too, would fail to repay a bond due in October. R&F Properties, another highly indebted group, has said it will raise up to $2.5bn by borrowing cash from company executives and selling a property project. Several financial institutions with high exposure to the property sector have suffered falls in their market value.

When central-government regulators stepped up their campaign against leverage last August, the first major cracks began appearing in its business. Authorities have constricted developers’ capacity to continue accumulating debt, limiting liability-to-asset ratios to less than 70%, net debt-to-equity ratios to less than 100% and mandating levels of cash that are at least equivalent to short-term debt. The policy has changed the nature of the business.

Ping An Bank and Minsheng Bank, both hit by sell-offs in recent days, had 10.6% and 10.3% of their total loan books extended to property groups in the first half of the year. Minsheng has tight links to Evergrande. Shengjing Bank, which is majority-owned by Evergrande, is thought to have lent heavily to the property company. A banking crisis is not the base case for many investors watching the situation.

If Evergrande does default, there is still the possibility that the government may step in to help individuals. The state, which is likely to have been worried by protests in recent days by savers who have bought Evergrande’s wealth-management products, is expected to be forced to broker a partial bail-out for assets most connected with social stability. Such a process would be focused on the properties the company has already sold to ordinary people and which are not yet built.

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